Capability 04 · Analytics & Forecasting
The forecast lives in one spreadsheet.
And in one person's head.
A forecasting flow for teams planning purchasing, staffing, or capacity on gut feel and a fragile file only one person fully understands.
The situation
Ask twice, get two answers.
Planning runs on a spreadsheet built over years. The logic is in the formulas, and the formulas are in one person’s memory.
When that person is on holiday, planning stalls. When someone asks how a number was reached, the honest answer is "that’s how we’ve always done it."
A whole quarter gets planned on it anyway.
The challenge
A forecast nobody can explain is a forecast nobody can challenge.
The value of a forecast is not the number — it’s whether the team can trust and adjust it.
If the logic is hidden, people either accept it blindly or ignore it. Both are bad.
So the assumptions and the method have to be visible, so the team can question them and change them.
The capability
A forecast people can review, adjust, and stand behind.
We build the model on structured historical data, with the assumptions written down and the logic visible.
It supports the decision — it does not make it. People can change an assumption and immediately see what moves.
The forecast becomes a shared tool, not one person’s spreadsheet.
How the flow works
Before / after
Planning depends on exports, gut feel, and formulas only one person understands. When they’re away, it waits.
The forecast runs on structured data with assumptions in the open. Anyone can review it, adjust it, and explain it.
Controls
- Structured historical data only
- Assumptions documented and visible
- Model logic is reviewable
- A regular review cycle
- Changes tracked with reasons
- Clear ownership of the model
- Scenarios compared on the same basis
- Outputs feed planning, not auto-decisions
Where this applies
What changes
Questions about forecasting
Can we trust a forecast we did not build ourselves?
Only if you can see why it says what it says. A forecast worth acting on shows the drivers behind the number and what moves when an assumption changes. That way it can be reviewed and argued with, which is what makes it usable in a planning meeting.